How much snow? Devil in the details for possible winter storm Sunday and Monday

How much snow? Devil in the details for possible winter storm Sunday and Monday

Thursday marks not just the fourth day of the workweek, but also the fourth day in a row that all the major weather forecast computer models are showing the threat for measurable snow in the Washington, D.C. region to end the weekend. Consistency is important in the world of weather forecasting, which is one of the reason that the storm has been all the buzz on social media recently.

Winter threat remains for early next week with snow possible Sunday into Monday

Winter threat remains for early next week with snow possible Sunday into Monday

Weather models yesterday afternoon caused quite the stir on social media when the European model called for over two feet of snow early next week across the Washington, D.C. region. We always advise caution with such extreme amounts however. That is not to say that storms like that cannot happen, as we have just passed the five year anniversary of the last storm that did just that, the blizzard of January 2016. Conditions for such storms typically need to be ideal though, they are the "perfect storms" in many ways because the atmospheric setup needs to be just right. As things stand right now, we do not believe we are dealing with such a case here. In fact, the very same model that showed over two feet yesterday is now just showing half a foot as of this morning. Considerably less...but still impactful. Still very much a storm worth watching into early next week.

Snow showers possible Thursday; eyes on late weekend storm risk

Snow showers possible Thursday; eyes on late weekend storm risk

A little over a month after the winter solstice and Reagan National, D.C.'s officially measuring post for snowfall, has officially picked up the first measurable snow of the winter season. Though just 0.3", it was the most snow the District has picked up in over a year, and accounts for 50% of last years seasonal snowfall total. While last night's snowfall totals were far from memorable, we do have the potential of possibly adding to it within the next week.

Winter weather possible Monday into Tuesday; lingering cold key to threat

Winter weather possible Monday into Tuesday; lingering cold key to threat

The recipe for winter weather and snow is really not all that difficult. You simply need air cold enough overhead as moisture is moving in and boom...you have either freezing rain, sleet, or snow! In the Mid-Atlantic though, it is not always that easy to hold that cold air in place long enough to give a purely snow event. You need certain features to align atmospherically which is actually a rarer occurrence than I think many people realize. Yes, we do get some big blizzards here in the D.C. region, but they are far from an every year occurrence. The setup has to be just right.