Snow possible for DC, Maryland, Virginia this weekend as bitter cold persists
WASHINGTON - One might say it has been a roller-coaster start to the December weather here in DC, but that would imply that there have been "ups" to the forecast. The reality is, the forecast has been consistent in the D.C. region since the Thanksgiving holiday... consistently cold that is!
Given recent winters here in our region, this December has at least started as quite the contrast from what we have grown used to around here. Insert Tweet:
Indeed, it is not even officially winter in the Northern Hemisphere just yet — it begins Dec. 21 — but it sure has felt like it in our region. Though the first 10 days of the month, D.C. has seen temperatures more typical of January than December. It has been our coldest start to the month in 20 years. We also broke a streak of seven straight years without an inch of snowfall in the entire month of December, and we may not be done adding to that number just yet.
While we are not currently tracking any type of major blizzard, even a small amount of snow could cause some travel headaches and disruptions in our region. The Fox 5 Weather Team is tracking not one, but two threats for winter weather over the next five days...with one having a better shot at accumulations than another. So here is what we know so far about the upcoming winter threats.
THREAT ONE: Friday – Very Minor Event
The first shot at some snowflakes falling across the DC region comes on Friday as a fast moving clipper system crosses the Midwest and just south of the Mid-Atlantic region. Now, for those hoping of a repeat of last Friday’s snow closures and accumulating snowfall...I would not hold my breath so much for the system on Friday.
While the system does across through the Midwest with some decent moisture and intensity, models are consistent with the feature weakening drastically as it crosses the Appalachian Mountains on Friday. Most guidance suggest accumulating snowfall will be mostly limited to our mountain zones to the far west. Those of us to the east of the highest peaks are more likely dealing with scattered snow showers and flurries. In some locations, these may coat the ground. But most of the region is not looking at anything of significance Friday. We just do not want it to shock you if you see snowflakes.
THREAT TWO: Sunday Morning – Accumulations Possible
The system that is the greater threat to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as far as accumulations are concerned is a potential storm later Saturday night into the early morning hours of Sunday. Now I want to stress early on there are not any suggestions that suggest this will be any type of major (6"+) snowstorm for the region, but a number of models do suggest a few inches of snow is possible.
The key to this storm is the strength of the cold air that is pushing into the eastern half of the country through the weekend. It is likely to be the strongest of the season so far, plunging parts of the Midwest and Northern Plains including cities like Minneapolis and Chicago into subzero temperatures by Sunday morning. Ahead of the push of Arctic cold, several models suggest a fast-moving wave of low pressure may develop and push northward up the East Coast on Saturday night into Sunday.
As is typical with any storm system that is 4-5 days away, there is a fair amount of uncertainty. Weather models are currently split between two solutions, which is the difference between snow and no snow here in the DC region.
Scenario 1 (Closer Track): If the storm tracks a bit closer to the coast, we could see an enhanced band of heavier snow, potentially bringing a couple of inches to parts of the area, creating some slippery travel for the day on Sunday.
Scenario 2 (Further South): If the cold comes in too strong and too fast, the system would likely not have time to organize properly. It will be a weaker wave that stays too far south or east, and the D.C. area will be on the northern edge, resulting in just a few harmless flurries or even no snow at all.
Accumulation: If the storm does organize in time to throw moisture back across the region, most models suggest a general one to three inches with perhaps some pockets of two to four inches of snow would be possible for much of the DC region. By contrast, if the storm is suppressed to the south and fails to come together, it is not our of the question that the DC region misses out on snowfall entirely.
The bottom line? Keep your coat handy and check back for updates! While a major snow event seems unlikely, DC area residents should monitor the latest forecast updates through Saturday evening as the system approaches. Snow or no snow, Sunday and Monday will likely be two of the coldest days of the young season so far.
Looking Beyond: A Break From The Cold?
As we get beyond next week and closer to Christmas time, most models do suggest we are in for a noticeable pattern change as we head into the latter half of the month. A more "zonal" pattern, that is a less "wavy" jetstream where upper-level winds mostly move west to east across the country, is forecast in the week ahead of the Christmas holiday. In addition to settling down the risk for winter weather, this type of pattern also allows for temperatures to moderate across much of the country. Here in DC, it would allow for the
return of temperatures in the 50s, something we have shockingly not done at all yet this December. Look for this change around the time frame of next weekend, in the December 19th-21st range.
While it is still early, such a pattern ahead of the Christmas holiday would suggest that DC is likely to extend its streak of no snow on Christmas day. This is of course subject to change. We are unsure if this coming milder pattern will be one that sticks around into early January, or just a brief break before returning to a colder pattern. The Fox 5 Weather Team will keep you posted!