Analyst makes prediction for Virginia ahead of Election Day | Oct. 31 Virginia election update

RICHMOND, Va. - Election Day in Virginia is just under a week away. Here's everything you need to know about the candidates running for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general, as well as latest polls and how to vote. 

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The latest

Abigail Spanberger

The race for Virginia governor rolled into northern Virginia on Thursday as Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger’s bus tour arrived in Alexandria just days ahead of Election Day. 

Spanberger has been barnstorming across the Commonwealth on an 11-day bus tour, hitting 40 stops across the state ahead of election day on Nov. 4.

 At a "Latinos for Spanberger" event on Thursday at Los Tios Grill, the former congresswoman said if she’s elected as Virginia’s first female governor, she’d be a barrier against the current polices implemented by the Trump administration in Washington.

"We need a governor who will recognize that this chaos is hurting the people that the Governor is supposed to serve and we need a governor who, when Virginia’s healthcare is under attack, will stand up," Spanberger said. 

Winsome Earle-Sears

Earle-Sears has also held events in recent days, but has wrapped up with the proceedings in the General Assembly as the critical election nears. 

She did rally with her Republican supporters Wednesday night, though.

"This is an election for our children, and our children’s children. There’s not a timeline on this. They depend on us to make the right decisions," she said.

On Thursday, Earle-Sears campaign bus caught fire while en-route to an event. The bus was traveling on Route 33. 

No one was injured. 

Virginia governor election prediction

Chaz Nuttycombe, the 25-year-old executive director and founder of the nonpartisan nonprofit State Navigate, told FOX 5's Jim Lokay his latest prediction on the 2025 Virginia elections. 

Nuttycombe’s latest model shows Democrat Abigail Spanberger leading the gubernatorial race by roughly 10 points, with 98% odds of victory. He compared her dominance to Bob McDonnell’s 2009 landslide, calling this the "least competitive governor’s race" Virginia has seen in more than a decade.

Here's what his models are saying about the lieutenant governor and attorney general races. 

When is Election Day in Virginia? 

What's next:

Election Day 2025 is Tuesday, Nov. 4. 

Key Dates | Virginia Elections 2025

• Voter Registration Deadline: Thursday, Oct. 24, 2025
• Early In-Person Voting: Sept. 19 – Nov. 1, 2025
• Deadline to Request a Mailed Ballot: Oct. 24, 2025

You can check your registration status online here.

To find your local poll site, click here.

Who's ahead? Polls in the Virginia governor race

By the numbers:

Spanberg is ahead by ten points over Earle-Sears (51%-41%) in a new Roanoke College poll. 

"While Spanberger appears to have maximized her Democratic support, Earle-Sears could slightly increase her support among Republicans, and she needs to make more inroads with independents with very little time left to do so," said Roanoke College Professor Dr. Harry Wilson. 

For lieutenant governor, Democrat Ghazala Hashmi has a small lead over Republican John Reid (42%-40%). 

Republican Jason Miyares now leads Democrat Jay Jones for attorney general (46%-38%). 80% of likely voters say they heard about Jones' text scandal. 1% of early voters who have already cast their vote said they would have switched their vote to Miyares due to the texts. 

"While Jones has clearly lost some support among Democrats, they have not moved over to support Miyares, suggesting they may either ‘come home’ in the end or simply not vote in that race. As concerning for Jones, Miyares now narrowly leads among independents. It may be unprecedented to see such a divergence between the race for governor and attorney general. Everyone who ever contemplates running for public office might consider holding their tongue and stilling their hands on occasion," said Wilson. 

How to track Virginia election results

What you can do:

Bookmark FOX 5 DC's election results page to track results in real time when polls close on Tuesday, Nov. 4.

Meet the candidates

Virginia Governor

Abigail Spanberger - Democrat

Former congresswoman Abigail Spanberger and current Lieutenant Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears are vying to become the first woman to hold the highest office in the state. 

Abigail Spanberger is a former Virginia congresswoman, who also worked as an inspector with the U.S. Postal Service and as a case officer with the CIA.

Spanberger’s intelligence background has shaped her approach to leadership and public service. She pointed to her years in the intelligence community as critical preparation for tackling complex issues.

"My time in the CIA taught me the importance of being decisive, understanding the nuances of global and domestic threats, and working collaboratively to solve problems," she said. "These are lessons I’ll bring to the governor’s office."

Winsome Earle-Sears - Republican

Winsome Earle-Sears is a native of Kingston, Jamaica, who immigrated to the United States at the age of six. 

She went on to serve in the United States Marine Corps and has also served as the vice president of the Virginia State Board of Education, worked as a presidential appointee to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Advisory Committee on Women Veterans to the Secretary of Veterans Affairs.

Earle-Sears was first elected to the Virginia House of Delegates in 2002. She became the first female Lieutenant Governor of Virginia, and the first Black woman elected to statewide office, in 2022. 

Virginia lieutenant governor

John Reid - Republican

Reid is the first openly gay man to receive a major party endorsement in Virginia. He lives in Richmond with his partner. 

According to his campaign website, John has been the host of the WRVA Morning Show for the past eight years. This is one of the nation's longest-running conservative talk radio programs.

Reid is the founder and chair of The Virginia Council, which was founded in 2021. The group's website states that the aim of the council is to "safeguard the Commonwealth’s monuments, art and historic sites—not simply as relics, but as resources for learning, dialogue and community connection." 

Reid also served as one of the final interns to President Ronald Reagan in Los Angeles when he was younger. He then went on to serve as Communications Director for U.S. Senator George Allen. He additionally served as Chief Communications Officer for Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America. 

Ghazala Hashmi - Democrat

Hashmi emigrated with her mother and older brother from India to the United States when she was 4 years old, according to her campaign website. 

She graduated as valedictorian of her high school class and attended Georgia Southern University before earning her PhD in American literature from Emory University.

She and her husband moved to the Richmond area in 1991, where they still live. They have two daughters, who both graduated from Chesterfield County Public Schools and the University of Virginia.

Prior to being a member of the Virginia State Senate, Hashmi spent nearly three decades as a professor at both the University of Richmond and Reynolds Community College. 

Virginia attorney general 

Jay Jones - Democrat

Jay Jones is the Democratic candidate for Virginia’s Attorney General. He’s running against Republican incumbent Jason Miyares, who has been endorsed by President Donald Trump. 

36-year-old Jones served two terms in the Virginia House of Delegates from 2018 to 2022.

Since leaving the Virginia House of Delegates, Jones told FOX 5 DC that he’s been working "in the private sector, litigating in court against Governor Youngkin and Jason Miyares on behalf of folks like the Virginia State Conference of the NAACP to protect voting rights."

Jones' campaign has been rocked by surfaced 2022 texts in which he mused about shooting a Republican lawmaker.  

In the messages, Jones commented about former Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert, saying, "three people two bullets…Gilbert, Hitler, and Polpot…Gilbert gets two bullets to the head."

In a statement, Jones said in part: "I take full responsibility for my actions, and I want to issue my deepest apology to Speaker Gilbert and his family. Reading back those words made me sick to my stomach. I am embarrassed, ashamed, and sorry."

Jason Miyares - Republican

Miyares, 49, was born in Greensboro, North Carolina and grew up in Virginia Beach. He’s served as the attorney general for Virginia since 2022. 

Before that, Miyares served as a member of the Virginia House of Delegates from 2016 to 2022. 

Miyares is Cuban-American; his mother fled from Havana, Cuba in 1965. He is the first Hispanic American elected to statewide office in Virginia and the first child of an immigrant to become Attorney General. 

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