Could winter weather bring DC snow in December? Examining storm risk early next week
A run of the American Model, which shows more rain mixing in due to warmer temperatures as the storm passes the DC region.
WASHINGTON - With Thanksgiving now in the rear view, and the calendar flipping to early December on Monday, a number of weather models are suggesting the potential for some wintery weather in the D.C. region early next week.
The Weather Pattern Into Next Week Is Conducive To Cold Air Sticking Around Into Early December.
What We Know So Far:
The cold weather that settled into the D.C. region on Thanksgiving Day is sticking around through the weekend and into early next week.
Sunday morning will start off with a brief light early morning wintry mix, as a warm front lifts through the area.
The precipitation will most likely happen between 7 and 9 a.m. Any precipitation that does develop will quickly change over to all rain ending in the late morning.
The remainder of Sunday will be cold and breezy, with highs in the mid-40s.
We'll have a better chance for winter weather overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, thanks to a deepening low pressure moving up the eastern seaboard. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cold with highs in the 40s for the next seven days.
A run of the American Model, which shows more rain mixing in due to warmer temperatures as the storm passes the DC region.
What Weather Models Suggest:
The FOX 5 Weather Team says Tuesday’s snow potential depends on how a few key factors evolve:
- Timing of Precipitation vs. Cold Air Escape: The earlier in the day precipitation begins, the more likely it is to be either snow, sleet or ice. The later it arrives, the more likely it is to be just rain.
- Storm Track and Atmospheric Setup: A slight shift north or south in the track of the approaching system could make the difference between a more harmless rainfall scenario and a more impactful snow or wintry-mix event.
- Strength Uncertainties: Models are struggling with how the storm will form, and how strong it will get before it passes by the D.C. region. There have been a lot of run-to-run variations in how the storm will come together...and even some that suggest it may not come together at all.
Because of those uncertainties, and how early it is in the winter weather season, the FOX 5 Weather Team always recommends treating any early-season snow chance with caution.
Extended Outlook Showing That Temperatures Are Likely To Remain Colder Than Normal Into Early December
What Could Change:
Weaker Storm: A weaker storm is likely to drift south of the D.C. region, leading to a cold, but quieter Tuesday overall.
Stronger Storm: A stronger storm would bring in more moisture, which means the potential for heavier snow or mix, at least initially. Though it would also likely lead to a faster change to rain as the storm pulls in some milder air from the south.
Cold Air Supply: The forecast is calling for plenty of cold air around through early December. Much of the region will see overnight temperatures fall to or below freezing for much of the first week of December. A key issue with the forecast is how long those colder temperatures will hold on Tuesday, as they are forecast to warm above freezing later Tuesday morning. If the air mass stays colder than expected, it could lead to more winter weather. But that also depends heavily on the...
Timing Trouble: The timing of any winter system, especially early in the season, is key to what type of precipitation could fall. A faster storm that arrives before sunrise is more likely to bring impactful winter weather than one that arrives later in the day. So we will be closely monitoring the timing of this system.
Fox 5’s Forecast For The Next Week
What You Should Keep In Mind:
If you live in outlying suburbs or areas north and west of D.C., where temperatures tend to be colder, you do have slightly higher chances of seeing snow or slush than folks along the I-95 corridor, the city center and locations to the southeast.
What's next:
Keep an eye on updates from local updates from FOX 5. Last-minute changes are quite common with a system like the one that could impact us on Tuesday.
In short...yes, there is a chance for snow next Tuesday morning in the DC region. But whether that snow becomes a few flakes, a slushy accumulation...or ends up being just rainfall, or even nothing at all is very much up in the air. Stay tuned for updates and we will continue to monitor the situation as December begins!