Why Virginia’s 2025 election could be another bellwether moment

RICHMOND, Va. - Few states tell America’s political story quite like Virginia.

Every four years, a year after the presidential race, the Commonwealth votes for governor — and more often than not, that outcome offers a glimpse of where the nation’s political winds are blowing next.

This year, with control of the governor’s mansion, lieutenant governor’s office, and attorney general’s seat up for grabs — and a federal shutdown stretching into its sixth week — the eyes of the political world are once again on Virginia.

The backstory:

Virginia’s bellwether status isn’t new. The modern era of that reputation can be traced back to 1985, when Democrat Gerald L. Baliles won the governor’s race with 55% of the vote.

That victory marked a full Democratic sweep — and the start of a decades-long pattern where Virginia’s results have served as a political mood check after a presidential election year. 

Baliles’ win also came as Virginia voters made history, electing the first African-American lieutenant governor (Douglas Wilder) and the first woman attorney general (Mary Sue Terry).

That trio of victories cemented Virginia’s reputation as a state willing to shift, signal, and surprise.

In recent history, the only exception to the rule came in 2013, when Democrat Terry McAuliffe was elected governor over Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, the year after President Barack Obama won his second term.

By the numbers:

Nearly 40 years later, the 2025 contests feel familiar — close, consequential, and closely watched.

A new Commonwealth Poll from the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at VCU shows the races tightening as Election Day approaches.

Among registered voters:

• Governor: Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle-Sears 49% to 42%, down from a 9-point lead in September.
• Lieutenant Governor: Democrat Ghazala Hashmi holds a 44% to 43% edge over Republican John Reid.
• Attorney General: Republican Jason Miyares now leads Democrat Jay Jones 45% to 42%, a net 9-point swing since the previous poll.

"These results highlight that, with several weeks to go before the election, voters are paying attention to what the candidates are doing — and what they have done — as a precursor to what they will do if elected," said Wilder, the one-time lieutenant governor who became Virginia’s 66th governor in 1989 becoming the first African-American elected governor in American history.

Big picture view:

Virginia’s uniqueness lies in its history of ticket splitting. The state elects its governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general separately, which often produces split results across the three races.

Pete Snyder, the 2021 GOP candidate for governor, highlighted this dynamic on "The Final 5 with Jim Lokay" on FOX 5:

"Virginia has a long history of ticket splitting, usually stays in the center, and, you know, unfortunately for the Democrats, they’ve become so radical, and so extreme in a lot of their positions."

Pete Snyder on the race for Virginia

Virginia's statewide elections are getting national attention, not just for the historical precedent that often favors the party opposite the White House in the race for governor, but also for the text message scandal that engulfed Democratic attorney general nominee Jay Jones. Jim talks about the state of the races with former GOP candidate for governor and CEO of Disruptor Capital Pete Snyder on "The Final 5."

Analysts say that independence and centrist tendencies could mean mixed outcomes in November — even if one party dominates statewide headlines.

The stakes this year are heightened by the ongoing federal government shutdown, which has already affected thousands of Virginia federal employees and contractors.

For political observers, Virginia is once again a proxy for national sentiment: will voters reward or punish the party in the White House?

Either way, Virginia’s results on November 4 will resonate far beyond Richmond.