Virginia’s 2025 race could be a referendum on DC
Virginia's 2025 race heats up as national politics loom large, analyst says
Political analyst Sam Shirazi, host of the Federal Fallout podcast, joined Jim Lokay on "The Final 5" to break down why Virginia?s 2025 gubernatorial election is getting national attention?and how federal issues could overshadow local ones in the battle between Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger (D).
VIRGINIA - As the countdown to Election Day 2025 begins, all eyes are once again on Virginia—a state that has long served as a bellwether for national political trends.
Political analyst Sam Shirazi, host of the Federal Fallout podcast, joined The Final 5 with Jim Lokay on FOX 5 to explain why Virginia is drawing outsized attention and how national politics are shaping the race for governor between Republican nominee Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and former Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger.
"Virginia is always the first big election after the presidential," Shirazi explained. "Everyone looks to see what the political temperature is—whether the party in the White House is doing well or not. Traditionally, the opposite party gains ground. We'll see if that holds this time."
Historically, Virginia voters have shifted against the sitting president’s party. Republican Bob McDonnell’s 2009 win came a year after Barack Obama’s election. Glenn Youngkin’s 2021 victory followed President Joe Biden’s first year in office.
Now, with a post-Trump-era Republican field forming and Democrats eyeing momentum, Virginia’s 2025 race may again be shaped more by D.C. than Richmond.
Shirazi pointed to the political responses following the passage of the high-profile tax bill backed by President Donald Trump.
"Democrat Abigail Spanberger has leaned into it—she talks about it a lot on the trail, she posts about it. It’s central to her campaign," he said. "Meanwhile, Winsome Sears, the Republican candidate, rarely mentions it. She's focusing more on local themes."
That contrast reflects a broader trend: "The party out of power wants to nationalize the race. The party in the White House wants to localize it," Shirazi added.
While Virginians care deeply about state issues, federal developments still drive much of the conversation. Shirazi noted that recent federal budget cuts—especially those impacting defense and federal workers—are already having a local economic impact.
"There are issues in Virginia—job losses, federal cuts, concerns about Medicaid—that you don’t hear about as much in Pennsylvania or California. But they’re huge here," Shirazi said.
The Republican ticket also presents a strategic split. Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears is positioning herself as a Youngkin-style candidate, while her running mate, John Reid, is seen as more aligned with Trump.
"Reid is definitely tying himself to Trump. Sears is more of a Youngkin successor," Shirazi noted. "That creates a mixed message for Republicans."
Reid’s candidacy also hasn’t been without controversy. He faced early calls to drop off the ticket over a questionable website that he denied any involvement with, and there was no evidence he was connected with it in any way. But Reid has been active on Virginia-specific issues, including school controversies in Loudoun County and Title IX investigations—key topics in the GOP's 2021 success.
Asked how to categorize Virginia politically heading into 2025, Shirazi said: "It’s probably best described as a light blue state. Democrats have made gains in the last two cycles."
Still, he added, Virginia remains competitive. "The Democrats have a bit of an edge right now—enthusiasm, money, and momentum. But the race is very much in play."