Weekend storm update: Close call, but near miss favored

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WASHINGTON - As of Wednesday evening, no weather model is showing a snow event for the D.C. area this weekend comparable to what we just experienced. Forecasters are still monitoring the system closely, but most guidance currently favors a near miss or a complete miss for our region.

Light snowfall predicted, if any

What we know:

At this time, any snowfall locally would be light and mainly confined to eastern areas. The best chance for more disruptive snow remains along the coast, especially on the Eastern Shore near Ocean City, MD. Eastern North Carolina and parts of eastern New England have the highest likelihood of more significant impacts.

As the region continues to dig out from last weekend’s snow and sleet, attention has quickly shifted to this next potential storm. A coastal system is expected to develop south of our area and move northward, but its exact track remains uncertain. Three outcomes remain on the table: a close-in nor’easter bringing heavy snow and wind to D.C., a near miss producing light snow mainly east of I-95, or a suppressed track that keeps the region cold and dry.

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Little to no accumulation closer to I-95

Dig deeper:

Most weather models — including the European and American models — have trended east over the past couple of days. The latest European model brings steady snow to Eastern Virginia and the Eastern Shore, with little to no accumulation closer to I-95. The American model keeps the storm even farther offshore, resulting in no snow for D.C. and only minor coastal impacts.

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That said, the margin between these scenarios is very thin. A shift of roughly 100 miles west could bring accumulating snow back into the D.C. area. Models are still refining the atmospheric setup, and confidence should improve over the next 24 to 36 hours.

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This storm could produce a sharp snowfall gradient, similar to late January 2022, when D.C. saw little snow while coastal areas like Ocean City experienced blizzard conditions and heavy accumulations.

Confidence is highest for impactful snow in the Carolinas, where strong upper-level energy may bring moderate snow and possible blizzard conditions to eastern North Carolina. Farther north, Cape Cod also has a better chance of seeing heavier snow if the storm shifts slightly west. High surf and coastal erosion are also possible even if snow stays offshore.

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Cold air to persist 

Big picture view:

Regardless of this storm’s track, cold air is expected to persist into February. While temperatures may moderate slightly next week, long-range guidance suggests additional cold spells, keeping snow chances on the table later in the month.

We’ll continue to track the storm and provide updates as the weekend approaches.