Tropical Storm Erin forecasted to become a major hurricane. Will it hit the DC area?
Spaghetti plots showing where forecast models are expecting the storm to go.
WASHINGTON - Tropical Storm Erin is now the fifth named storm in the Atlantic this season as it formed on Monday off the western coast of Africa.
Erin is expected to rapidly intensify to Hurricane status, and most likely to become a Major Hurricane early next week. Impacts have already been felt in the Cape Verde Islands, as seven people were killed, according to Fox Weather.
Will we have our first Major Hurricane?
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts that Tropical Storm Erin will be the first Hurricane and Major Hurricane of the season. On average we see our first Atlantic Hurricane around August 11, making Erin right on time. Usually the first Major Hurricane happens around September 1, but we expect Erin to intensify, making it a little early. The most recent forecasts have Erin reaching category 3 status through the early morning hours Sunday, with expected winds at 115 miles per hour.
Satellite and current intensity of tropical storm Erin.
Tropical Storm Erin projected path
The system is currently 1305 miles from the Northern Leeward Islands and will be making its way closer to the shores early this weekend.
Tropical Storm Erin is expected to move north of the Northern Leeward Islands. It is not expected to make landfall over the islands but if the storm has more southerly trends minor impacts could be felt with strong rainfall being the biggest factor.
Nearly all guidance has the eye of the storm staying out at sea, but any shift in the storms can change the forecast dramatically and will be monitored closely.
The future forecast cone which is where forecasters estimate the area that the eye of the storm is most likely to move through.
Local perspective:
As for the D.C. area, Erin will be making minimal impacts through our area as spaghetti plots pull our system eastward as it approaches the United States. The biggest risks are going to be strong rip currents and a potential for high swells. Erin is expected to remain over the ocean, but will continually be monitored closely as we are still far out from any big changes that can happen in the forecast.