Rare April snow expected Saturday; impact should be minor

WASHINGTON - If you were to hear the words "record breaking snowfall is possible tomorrow"during any point over the winter you would likely arm yourself with snow shovels, sidewalk salt, and all the milk and bread you could carry from your local super market. However, those words hold a lot less weight during the month of April then they do at any other point of the year. While record breaking snow is possible Saturday here in Washington, D.C. - remember that the record snowfall for April 7 is only 0.6 inches! Not a whole lot at all!

Any snow in April is impressive in itself - even just a dusting. We do not see it very often and see even less of the kind that you can actually measure. Washington, D.C. has not had any measurable snow during the month of April in 11 years when 0.4 inches fell on April 7th, 2007. An inch of snow in D.C. during April is even more rare. You have to look back 94 years to April 1st, 1924 for the last time it happened. D.C. picked up 5.5 inches that day which is the most we have ever seen during the month of April in the District. In fact, all of the top five April snowfalls in D.C. came before 1924.

April is a tough month for accumulating snow simply because of the time of year. Compared to early February, early April features two more hours of sunlight a day. This allows both air and ground temperatures to get naturally warmer during time of year compared to during the winter months. This means even when we do happen to get snow during this time of year, much of what falls melts on contact. Weather models do not account for this when they throw out forecasted snowfall numbers. As forecasters, it is our job to adjust the forecast accordingly. For snow to really pile up in April, you need it to snow for an extended period of time at a heavy rate that is faster than the ground can melt it. This is not expected to be the case with the upcoming storm.

Weather models Friday morning indicated the potential for disruptive weather in two phases on Saturday. The first phase comes during the morning hours in the form of rain showers and perhaps a little mix as a cold front passes through the region. The areas of highest risks are downtown Washington and points to the south and east. Many weather models actually give the area a break during the late morning through the middle of the afternoon. The area will dry out but stay cool and cloudy with temperatures approaching the middle 40s. By the late afternoon and evening hours, a second and stronger wave will slide to the south of the region and perhaps have enough moisture with it to bring snowfall to parts of our area. It now appears to be within that evening time frame when the area has the best shot at seeing some light accumulating snows.

How much can accumulate? You have to remember the time of year we are in. Temperatures on Friday afternoon are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s across the D.C. region. Overnight low temperatures have not fallen below freezing since March 21st in D.C., so ground temperatures are warm. Even when snow begins falling, it is unlikely to stick initially. Friday morning's weather models were particularly bearish on snowfall amounts northwest of town where temperatures will be colder but precipitation may struggle to make it due to too much dry air being present. As things stand now, the better risks of accumulating snow are actually south of D.C., across Southern Maryland, the Northern Neck, and parts of the Delmarva. But even in these locations snowfall amounts are expected to be light. We've got a zone of one to three inches (on the grass) in these areas. By comparison, you see the latest forecast from the National Weather Service for our area is showing very light amounts of less than one inch for our entire region.

The way this forecast can change to more snow over the next 24 hours before the system approaches our region is if the models choose to trend a little farther north with the precipitation. Several weather models Friday morning showed signs of taking a northwest jump. This is not too atypical of weather systems during a La Niña winter, particularly given the atmospheric setup we see with this system. However, even as the steadier snows do approach the Washington, D.C. metro region, we are still likely only talking about - at worse - a potential for a grassy one to three inches of snow. It is still not a very strong or organized storm system and it is still not a long duration snowfall event. With road temperatures even warmer than the grassy areas, we are not expected issues on the well-traveled, warmer roadways across our region. There may be a few slushy spots on those less traveled side streets and sidewalks. We may also see slushy spots near locations where snow does come down steadily enough for a few hours - particularly if the snow is still falling after sunset. We are cold overnight Saturday into Sunday, so what little does stick on Saturday night is likely to hang around into early Sunday morning. However, with sunshine and temperatures near 50 degrees expected by Sunday afternoon, we should melt it off quickly.

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