Polar vortex, snow models used to track impact of possible weekend storm in DC

Weekend snow threat across DC region

FOX 5’s Tucker Barnes is tracking a weekend snow threat that could impact the Washington, D.C. region.

WASHINGTON - All eyes are on this weekend's potential snow and if we're expecting to get some accumulating snow.

What we know:

Models continue to signal a healthy storm riding along the cold air boundary as it crosses the country on its way east. But, one thing we're all keeping an eye on is where this storm lines up.

The storm system is expected to ride along the edge of the polar air that feeds it the necessary cold air to produce snow.

Polar vortex, snow models used to determine track of possible weekend storm in DC

This is where issues can occur because the cold air can be strong enough that the boundary is further south leading storm to track further south as well.

For the ideal Mid-Atlantic snow storm setup, we want to have the cold air just far south enough so that the storm track begins to center around North Carolina/ Southern Virginia.

Big picture view:

That setup would allow for the storm to have the bulk of the cold air and moisture to work with right over us leading to a decent snow event. This would also allow for the storm system to the turn up the coast and allow for the wrap around snow to continue adding to our snow totals.

Conversely, if the cold air was to have its boundary further south, we would end up having the storm system further into the south and missing us completely. This would leave us to see lots of dry cold air with no snow at all.

Polar vortex, snow models used to determine track of possible weekend storm in DC

The graphic above shows how both scenarios would play out with the first scenario depicting the snow favorable setup bringing us snow and the second scenario shows the storm track way lower into the south shifting snow further south.

But looking at the first scenario's potential snow track, the heavier amounts are expected to ride into the Midsouth and Mid-Atlantic.

Polar vortex, snow models used to determine track of possible weekend storm in DC

The "snow threat zone" is where we will continue to focus over the next few days to see where the bullseye of snow totals will fall. As of now, it is still too early to call for definitive snow totals but as shown above we are showing strong signs of a decent snowfall event on Sunday.

Outside of the snow talk, that blob of polar air is expected to stick around into the next work week, leaving us with temperatures in the 20s for our daytime highs. This would be thanks to the northern jet stream sinking into the US and allowing the polar vortex to shift over us and bring that Arctic Circle air to the east coast.

Polar vortex, snow models used to determine track of possible weekend storm in DC

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