New poll shows Spanberger with 10-point lead over Earle-Sears in VA governor's race

Spanberger outlines education overhaul as Virginia governor?s race nears

On The Final 5, Democratic nominee for Virginia governor Abigail Spanberger detailed her comprehensive education plan, focusing on early childhood access, affordability in higher education, and tackling the state?s last-place math recovery ranking. With fewer than 90 days until the election, Spanberger also lays out the potential for a debate with her Republican opponent.

RICHMOND, VA. - A new poll from Emerson College Polling/The Hill shows the Democratic nominee for Virginia governor, Abigail Spanberger, with a 10-point lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears. 

Specifically, Spanberger leads Earle-Sears 52% to 42%. Five percent of voters are undecided. 

The poll surveyed 725 Virginians who are likely to vote and was conducted earlier this week, on Sept. 28 and 29. It has a credibility interval, which is similar to a margin of error, of +/- 3.6%. 

Dig deeper:

In Jan. 2025, when Emerson first polled the race, Spanberger's support was at 42%, meaning it has jumped 10 percentage points since then. 

The poll further shows that independent voters support Spanberger by a 19-point margin, according to Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, Spencer Kimball, who pointed out in a statement that this is a reversal from January's poll, in which they supported Earle-Sears by a four-point margin. 

Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears gestures as she presides over the Senate during the session at the state Capitol on Feb. 8, 2022, in Richmond, Va. (AP Photo/Steve Helber, File)

"Spanberger’s support also increased among voters under 50: what was once a narrow 41% to 39% edge has grown into a 27-point lead, 59% to 32%," Kimball added. "Meanwhile, Earle-Sears has not consolidated support among older voters; in January, those 50 and older were evenly divided, 43% for Spanberger and 42% for Earle-Sears. Nine months later, the group remains split with 49% for Earle-Sears and 47% for Spanberger."

Economy, threats to democracy 

Local perspective:

The poll also surveyed voters on the top issues for them leading into the election. Thirty-five percent of those polled say the economy is their top issue, and 20% of those polled say threats to democracy are their top issue. Education came next, at 10%. From there, voters are also concerned about health care, housing affordability, immigration and crime. 

Those polled were also asked what issues are "very important" to them. Seventy-nine percent said the economy, adding that they believe the personal property tax, or car tax, should be eliminated in the state. This issue is important to voters across the political spectrum, with 89% of Republicans, 73% of independent voters and 66% of Democrats supporting the elimination of the tax altogether. 

Forty-two percent of the voters polled want more data centers to be built in Virginia, as well. These are facilities that store and process digital information, according to the poll.

According to the Virginia Economic Development Partnership, the state is already the world's largest data center market, and is home to 35% of all the "hyperscale" data centers in the world. "Hyperscale" means that a particular IT system is able to "scale" its computing threshold up or down based on demand.