How much snow is expected on Sunday? Here's what the models show so far

Winter Storm Watch for DC region

A Winter Storm Watch is in place from Saturday into Monday as a heavy snow threat builds in the D.C. region.

WASHINGTON - The Washington, D.C., region is bracing for a significant snowstorm this weekend, with the National Weather Service warning of an "Extreme" level threat. 

Winter storm threat

The National Weather Service has assessed the Winter Storm Threat for this weekend as "Extreme," the highest level threat. 

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Winter Storm Watch Saturday into Monday

A Winter Storm Watch is in place from Saturday evening through Monday morning as a surge of Arctic air moves into the Washington, D.C. region, bringing the threat of heavy snow, dangerous cold and the potential for travel delays and school disruptions.

"Someone will likely do 20"+ with this storm, but I think that zone is likely north or northwest of DC," said FOX 5's Mike Thomas in a Facebook post on Thursday. "I liked 8-14" for DCA yesterday, and I still like it today!"

FOX 5’s Tucker Barnes has not released an official snowfall forecast total yet, but says heavy snow is increasingly likely, with precipitation beginning Saturday evening and the peak of the storm unfolding through Sunday.

FIND THE LATEST DC WINTER STORM FORECAST HERE

Snowstorm, Arctic blast threaten DC region this weekend

Weekend winter storm | American Model

Barnes says a layer of warm air aloft, even as surface temperatures stay frigid, could lead to pockets of sleet or ice mixing in, which may affect final totals.

Model snowfall potentials, which show a wide range of raw computer simulated outcomes, suggest more than 15 inches could fall in Washington, D.C., and over 20 inches in higher elevation areas north and west of the District, including Cumberland, Maryland.

READ MORE: DC, Maryland, Virginia winter weather checklist: How to prepare for snow and ice this weekend

How much snow is expected on Sunday? Model potentials, forecast predictions point to major storm

Weekend winter storm | European Model

Barnes cautions that models can fluctuate dramatically from run to run and should be used as guidance while waiting for more stable, realistic forecast predictions. He notes there is often a large gap between model output and actual accumulation.

On Wednesday, Winter Storm Watches stretched across a large part of the country, with more than 175 million people potentially in the storm’s path.

READ MORE: What is the polar vortex? Why it matters as snow and Arctic cold threaten the Northeast

How much snow is expected on Sunday? Model potentials, forecast predictions point to major storm

Barnes also warns that frigid Arctic air trailing the storm could freeze any snow or ice that falls, raising the risk of power outages and potentially disrupting travel for days.

READ MORE: Virginia winter storm forecast: Significant snow possible, timing still uncertain

Stay ahead of the snow with FOX 5’s expert meteorologists, streaming LIVE on FOX LOCAL. We’re streaming nonstop coverage with the newest forecasts, snow potential, and preparation tips—before the storm and all weekend long. Download FOX LOCAL for 24/7 weather coverage on your smart TV and mobile devices.