Virginia winter storm forecast: Significant snow possible, timing still uncertain

VIRGINIA - Forecasters are monitoring a major winter storm expected to move into the Mid-Atlantic this weekend, with Virginia under a state of emergency. 

Read more: Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger declares State of Emergency ahead of winter storm

What we know:

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued Winter Storm Watches for portions of Virginia as a powerful winter system moves east from the South and toward the Mid-Atlantic.

Forecasters say heavy snow is possible, with precipitation expected to begin late Saturday and continue into Monday. Travel conditions could deteriorate quickly during periods of heavier snow, especially on untreated roads.

FIND THE LATEST DC WINTER STORM FORECAST HERE

Where snow is most likely in Virginia

While exact snowfall totals have not yet been finalized, forecasters say the greatest potential for accumulating snow appears to be across central and northern Virginia, including areas closer to the Interstate 95 corridor and toward the northern tier of the state.

Higher elevations could also see increased snowfall, while parts of eastern and southeastern Virginia may be more vulnerable to mixing with sleet or freezing rain, which could limit snow accumulation in some areas.

RELATED: What a winter weather ‘state of emergency means’ — and what it actually does

Why totals are still uncertain

Meteorologists say the biggest remaining question is the storm’s exact track as it moves up the East Coast.

A slightly more northern path would keep colder air locked in place across much of Virginia, increasing the likelihood of heavier snow. A more southern track could introduce warmer air aloft, leading to mixed precipitation and lower snow totals in some locations.

Small changes in timing and temperature can lead to large differences in snowfall, especially across the Mid-Atlantic.

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Timing of the storm

Snow could begin late Saturday night, becoming more widespread on Sunday and continuing into Monday before tapering off.

Behind the storm, very cold Arctic air is expected to move into the region, which could cause untreated roads to refreeze and prolong travel impacts even after snow ends.

RELATED: What are the biggest snowstorms in DC area history?

What's next:

Forecasters urge residents to monitor updated forecasts closely as the storm approaches.

Winter Storm Watches may be upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings as confidence in impacts and snowfall amounts increases.

Stay ahead of the snow with FOX 5’s expert meteorologists, streaming LIVE on FOX LOCAL. We’re streaming nonstop coverage with the newest forecasts, snow potential, and preparation tips—before the storm and all weekend long. Download FOX LOCAL for 24/7 weather coverage on your smart TV and mobile devices