WASHINGTON - As we enter August, the Atlantic Hurricane Season really begins to ramp up. The National Hurricane Center says on average, 86% of named storms happen after August 2.
This is due to sea surface temperatures reaching their peak in late September, making conditions more than favorable for storms. On average, there are two named storms before August 2, which makes this year a bit above average as we have seen three. Our most recent storm, Tropical Storm Chantal, was the only one to impact the U.S. coastline as impacts spread from Florida to the Mid-Atlantic.
Tropical Storm Dexter
Low and behold just after the August 2 mark we see our fourth named storm of the season. Tropical Storm Dexter formed during the overnight to early morning hours of August 4.
The good news? The U.S. can breathe a sigh of relief as this storm is not expected to make landfall and remain out to sea.
This means we will have minimal impacts and the key concern would be rip currents and tides. Dexter is not expected to intensify past Tropical Storm levels, meaning we are still yet to see a Hurricane.
What's next:
The National Hurricane Center is tracking two more disturbances in the Atlantic Basin. The first is a center of low pressure that is expected to develop in the coming days in the South East U.S. This system is expected to move to the west later this week, impacting the South East.
Fortunately, the system only has a 30% chance of development in the next seven days, but the development of a tropical system can’t be ruled out.
Impacts mostly seem to be some heavy rain in the area.
Our other disturbance is a tropical wave moving off Western Africa. This system has a 50% chance of developing within seven days. Some model guidance shows the disturbance intensifying into a hurricane with potential impacts on the U.S.
Big picture view:
When can we expect the first major hurricane? On average, the first major storm is around September 1, so we are still a ways away from that point. This comes just before peak season on September 10. The most active parts of hurricane season happen after the peak.
We especially saw this last year as two of the strongest storms, Helene and Milton, happened in late September and early October. While we may seem inactive right now, expect the season to pick up.