VA Democratic governor race: Spanberger leads in polls but Sears appears to be closing gap

Virginia will have a new governor come November, and no matter what, it will be historic as the two candidates are both women. The Commonwealth has never had a female governor before. 

What the polls show

What we know:

This morning there’s a new poll out in the Virginia’s governor’s race.  

Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by seven points in the race for Virginia governor, according to a new Roanoke College poll released Tuesday morning. 

The survey from the school’s Institute for Policy and Opinion Research shows 46% of likely voters are backing Spanberger compared to 39% for Earle-Sears. 

The poll shows that 14% remain undecided, and 1% support another candidate.  

RELATED: Virginia governor candidates set debate date as race narrows

The gubernatorial race

Dig deeper:

The race has been tightening since May, when Spanberger held a 17-point advantage. 

"Many Republicans seem to have ‘come home’ to Earle-Sears since the May poll, but Spanberger’s voters are slightly more enthusiastic about voting and more certain of their vote," said Harry Wilson, interim director of the Institute. 

In July, a Virginia Commonwealth University poll put Spanberger in a lead of 49% to Sears' 37% among registered voters in Virginia. 

"This marks an increase in both Spanberger’s support and her lead compared with the Wilder School’s December 2024 Commonwealth Poll, which had Spanberger ahead 45% to 35%," VCU wrote in its press release on the findings. 

Other Virginia seats

By the numbers:

The poll also tested down-ballot statewide races. Democrat Ghazala Hashmi holds a narrow lead over Republican John Reid in the lieutenant governor’s race, 38% to 35%. 

In the attorney general contest, Democrat Jay Jones leads Republican incumbent Jason Miyares, 41% to 38%.  Researchers surveyed 702 Virginia residents between Aug. 11 and Aug. 15. The poll carries a margin of error of 4.30 percent for all respondents.

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