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Another winter storm possible next weekend amid extreme cold streak
It's going to be a bitter cold week in the DMV and now, there's a chance of another winter storm coming to the area. Here's the latest forecast.
WASHINGTON - The scraping of plows and shovels continues to echo across the area as the region digs out of the biggest snow of the year so far.
The final total of 6.9" of snow and sleet at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport made it the fourth-largest snowfall for the city in the last decade.
Baltimore (BWI Thurgood Marshall) had their largest snowfall since the Blizzard of January 2016, picking up 11.3" of snow. While the cleanup continues, eyes are already looking toward the weekend, when another chance of snow is on the radar of meteorologists.
It’s a word that has honestly been overused when discussing cold air outbreaks in recent years: polar vortex.
In simple terms, this is a term used to describe an area of upper-level pressure in southern Canada that directs cold air into the United States. This time, however, I believe the use of the term is justified, as this wave of low pressure has its very origins in the polar region.
So, cold is the air it is directing into our region that Tuesday morning has the potential to be D.C.’s coldest morning in over 30 years, so long as the city falls to at least 4°F.
This is just one of a number of incredible facts that speak to just how intense the cold is going to be here in Washington, D.C. We are forecasting single digit low temperatures for each of the next five nights. We have not done that many consecutive nights of single digit lows since 1899.
There is also the possibility we could do 7 and 10 days in a row where the temperature fails to break the freezing point here in D.C., which would be our longest stretch since December 1989.
The point of all this is to say that while we have had some cold stretches of winter weather in recent years, this one is abnormally strong for its longevity and intensity. In addition, anytime you have a prolonged period of cold air being reinforced – you must be on guard for the potential for snow.
One thing I want to make very clear is that this setup is completely different from the one that brought us snowfall this past weekend in D.C.
While yes, there was a wave of low pressure that did develop and bring snow to our region, the dynamics of that system were primarily driven by large-scale overrunning.
A strong trough of low pressure in the west leading to a widespread push of warm, moist air forced up and over the arctic air that got entrenched in the region last Saturday. That is why the storm was so expansive, with winter storm warnings from New Mexico to Maine.
By contrast, the setup for this weekend is much more "classic" in terms of the threat zone would not be nearly as widespread as what happened this past weekend, but the areas impacted could be hit even harder.
This potential storm is being driven by upper-atmospheric energy crossing a strong ridge of high pressure in western Canada, diving southward through the Plains and Midwest. It meets up with southern energy coming off the Gulf late this week, and if timed correctly, the two consolidate to help power a powerful bomb cyclone pushing up the East Coast of the United States.
A key term in that were the words, if timed correctly. To keep it simple, from a technical standpoint we have all the ingredients needed to form a nor’easter in the East this weekend. Strong blocking near the Polar region and across Canada will keep the cold air coming throughout the week, and a strong ridge of high pressure will push eastward through the Western United States and towards the Rocky Mountains.
This will keep the storm from pushing into the interior of the United States, which lowers the threat that we are dealing with a mix or rain scenario like what we had to deal with this past weekend. Instead, in such a setup, you run the risk that the ridge of high pressure to the west is too strong, and what that will essentially do is force the storm to track farther to the east, where it is either less impactful or not impactful at all to the D.C region.
The European Model shown above shows this scenario as of its most recent run...but full disclosure it has been going back and forth between a near miss and a closer in high-impact snowstorm for the D.C. region.
So in short, yes. There is the risk for more snowfall in the DC region and Northeast this weekend. The truth is we are still in that forecast range where we have to watch model trends, to see if the storm could hug the coastline or if it will get forced out (what we call suppression).
My general thoughts are that given the pattern, we should have a reasonable idea by Wednesday night or Thursday morning if we are in for another winter wallop, or a near miss. If it does happen to hug the coastline though, the potential is there for an even more significant snowfall than the one we just went through this past weekend.
Stay tuned. We will have updates throughout the week.
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