Virginia voters face high-stakes redistricting referendum Tuesday

VIRGINIA - Voters across Virginia are set to head to the polls Tuesday for a closely watched election that could reshape the state’s congressional map and influence the balance of power in Washington.

At the center of the ballot is a controversial proposal that would allow the state legislature to temporarily redraw Virginia’s congressional districts ahead of the midterm elections.

The measure comes as redistricting battles are unfolding nationwide, with both major parties seeking advantages in an increasingly competitive political landscape.

If approved, the proposed map could give Democrats a significant edge in Virginia’s congressional delegation, with projections suggesting as much as a 10-to-1 advantage in the U.S. House.

Early voting concludes

What they're saying:

Republicans have sharply criticized the effort, calling it a political power grab, while Democrats argue it mirrors similar actions taken by Republicans in other states.

Early voting concluded Sunday, leaving Election Day turnout as a critical factor in determining the outcome. Political analysts say the result remains uncertain, with polling showing a slight edge for supporters of the measure but not enough to predict a clear outcome.

"This is one of those cases where the outcome is genuinely up in the air," Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics told FOX 5 DC. "There’s measurable support for the referendum, but intensity and turnout could ultimately decide it."

Sabato also noted that even if voters approve the measure, its future is far from guaranteed. The proposal is currently tied up in a case before the Virginia Supreme Court.

"The stunning thing is you could have tens of millions of dollars spent on both sides of this fight, only to have the entire issue decided by the court," Sabato said. He added that some Republican strategists are privately counting on that possibility if the measure passes.

Beyond legal uncertainty, experts caution that favorable maps do not always produce predictable political outcomes. They say that while redistricting can influence elections, voter behavior can still defy expectations.

"Mapmakers can design districts to favor one party, but voters don’t always follow that script," Sabato said. "You can draw a district for Democrats and still see a Republican win—and vice versa."

Another key factor is voter motivation. While Democrats may hold a slight advantage in public opinion polls, Sabato suggested Republicans could have higher enthusiasm heading into Election Day, particularly after recent electoral setbacks.

What's next:

Election officials say polls will open Tuesday morning, and results are expected later that evening.