This browser does not support the Video element.
Virginia election preview: Key races to watch for November midterms
A look at the key contests across Virginia, including the U.S. Senate race and critical House districts shaping the November general election.
ARLINGTON, VA. - Suburbia, home to strip malls, youth football fields and a notable lack of sidewalks was, for many decades following World War II, the bedrock of the Republican Party.
The backstory:
According to long-term voter behavior data from the American National Election Studies, Republican nominees won the national suburban vote in every presidential election year from 1952 to 1988, with the sole exception of the 1964 Democratic landslide. The Republican monopoly on the suburbs finally broke down in 1992 with the election of President Bill Clinton, and since then, the two major parties have been in a sort of tug-of-war for suburban voters.
(Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Suburbia is where close races get decided
Local perspective:
Today, suburban voters across the Mid-Atlantic help decide close races up and down the ballot, from House seats in the Lehigh Valley and northern New Jersey to the U.S. Senate contest in Virginia, according to three political scientists.
The Beltway footprint
For voters in the Washington, D.C., area, the suburban story plays out in a statewide contest: Virginia's U.S. Senate race, where Democratic incumbent Mark Warner faces Republican challenger Bert Mizusawa, a retired Army major general.
Virginia early voting starts Sept. 18: What voters need to know
Virginia voters will soon have their opportunity to cast ballots in the 2026 midterm elections, with in-person early voting beginning Sept. 18 and continuing through Oct. 31.
Northern Virginia's high-density, highly educated suburban rings, particularly Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties, are where any Democrat running statewide in Virginia needs to win to secure victory, according to the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
Northern Virginia also represents a massive anchor for Senator Warner's broader statewide coalition. His office describes his political brand as built on fiscal pragmatism and suburban appeal, so any erosion of suburban support could threaten his margin. Mizusawa has tailored his campaign to appeal to these defense-heavy tech corridors as he seeks to unseat Warner.
Further south, the suburban battle shifts from the high-tech corridors of the D.C. beltway to the defense-heavy communities of Hampton Roads in Virginia's 2nd congressional district, where Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans faces Democrat Elaine Luria in a rematch.
Luria previously represented the Virginia Beach-area district before losing to Kiggans in 2022. Kiggans and Luria are both Navy veterans, and the race is expected to draw significant national attention as Democrats try to take back the Republican-controlled House.
In a district shaped by military installations, defense contracting and sprawling suburban developments, tiny shifts among moderate voters in Virginia Beach and Chesapeake can flip the seat—making VA-02 another critical barometer for how suburban margins shape competitive races, according to the Cook Political Report’s 2026 race rating.
Spotlight on NJ-07 and NY-17
High-stakes suburban races in New Jersey and New York offer a clear window into how party loyalty is redefining modern swing districts, as well.
In the northern district of NJ-07, incumbent Republican U.S. Representative Tom Kean Jr. faces a tight contest against Democratic challenger Rebecca Bennett. In NY-17, Republican incumbent Mike Lawler is challenged by Democrat Cait Conley.
In 2024, Kean secured victory with nearly 52% of the vote, and Republican Mike Lawler won reelection with just over 52%.
According to Dr. Matthew Levendusky, professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania, voters in these suburban districts are experiencing a phenomenon called "partisan sorting."
"It’s not so much that people are moving further from the center," he said. "It’s that, on most things, people are becoming more consistently aligned with their party. Democrats kind of adopt the position articulated by Democratic elites, like elected officials and party leaders, and Republicans do the same for those on their side."
In other words, rather than moving to ideological extremes, voters in these districts are increasingly aligning their political beliefs with party platforms on key issues.
Parallel battle in PA-07
Across the state lines in Pennsylvania, the suburban battle lines look strikingly similar.
Pennsylvania’s 7th congressional district, as of 2022, encompasses all of Lehigh, Carbon and Northampton counties, as well as part of Monroe County. That year, the district was reconfigured under a new statewide congressional map selected by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court through a process called redistricting; this is when new district boundaries are enacted for elected offices, particularly congressional ones.
The district is currently represented by Republican Ryan Mackenzie, who flipped the seat in 2024 when he defeated three-term Democratic incumbent Susan Wild by roughly one percentage point.
Dr. Christopher Borick, professor of political science at Lehigh University, called the district a central bellwether for the median state voter.
"I'm living up here in the Lehigh Valley. It's such a competitive district, it's so evenly balanced," he said.
In Lehigh County, Democrats make up about 44% of registered voters, while Republicans account for roughly 35%, according to 2026 figures from the Pennsylvania Department of State. In the 7th District as a whole, the margins are narrower: Democrats make up 41.5% of registered voters, while Republicans account for nearly 38% as of this year.
But the state's ultimate tipping point often lies in Northampton County, which sits inside the 7th district, according to Dr. John Kennedy, professor of political science at West Chester University.
"[The one county] I always look to as a bellwether is Northampton County," he said. "It is more than any county, not just for presidential elections, but for gubernatorial elections, senate elections, any statewide election. No county in the state mirrors the overall state performance as Northampton County."
Kennedy added that performance across suburban counties such as Bucks, Montgomery and Lehigh will dictate whether Republicans can preserve their narrow state Senate control in Harrisburg. He tied that outcome to the governor's race, in which Gov. Josh Shapiro is seeking reelection.
"If Governor [Josh] Shapiro wins by a significant margin … Republicans are going to pay a significant price," he said.
The tipping point
Big picture view:
Levendusky added that the extreme narrowness of Mid-Atlantic margins leaves suburban voters with outsized influence, despite the fact that ticket splitting doesn't happen nearly as often as it did during its peak in the 1980s.
Split-ticket voting is when voters choose candidates from different political parties for different offices on the same ballot, according to Ballotpedia. This practice can be especially consequential in states where elections can be decided by narrow margins.
"You don't need very big groups of people to do that in order to change the results of elections," he said. He pointed to Pennsylvania's 2024 U.S. Senate race, where Republican Dave McCormick defeated Democratic incumbent Bob Casey Jr. by just 0.2 percentage points, illustrating how modest movements among suburban voters can affect statewide results.
The takeaway
What's next:
Taken together, these races suggest that a 1% to 2% shift among moderate suburban voters could be the decisive tipping point in close House and statewide races, whether in the northern suburbs of Virginia, the Lehigh Valley of Pennsylvania or the commuter towns of New Jersey and New York.
The Source: Information sourced from interviews with Dr. Matthew Levendusky, professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania; Dr. Christopher Borick, professor of political science at Lehigh University; and Dr. John Kennedy, professor of political science at West Chester University. Additional information was sourced from Ballotpedia, the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, the Pennsylvania Department of State, the Pew Research Center, the American Presidency Project, the Cook Political Report, the American National Election Studies and Presidential Studies Quarterly. Several campaign websites were also referenced.