DMV Winter 2026-2027 Outlook: What a historically strong Super El Niño means for snowfall amounts

WASHINGTON - It is that time of year again! The days are getting shorter, the nights longer. There is a noticeable chill in the air that can only mean one thing... winter draws closer with each passing day.

For the folks around Washington, D.C., when you talk about winter, weather folk get the same question year in and year out; how much snow will we have this winter? So let's try to answer that question and more, as I present to you, the official FOX 5 DC outlook for the upcoming winter of 2026-27 for the immediate D.C. region.

Want to jump directly to this winter's snowfall predictions? See the full breakdown here!

In Review: Last Year's Winter Outlook

We cannot try to look into the future without examining the past first. How did we do last year? I ended last year's winter outlook with four points, and four bold predictions. Let's examine those...

1. Cold start, milder finish – Grade: B

Nailed the start! Not the finish. It was a rare front-to-back cold winter last year. Each month of the winter came in below average. It was the second coldest winter of the 2000s and D.C.'s coldest since the winter of 2002-03. 

2. Winter average: slightly below normal temperatures – Grade: B

Colder than average? Yes. Slightly? No! We had an average winter temperature of 35.6°F... that is 3.7°F below normal. That's not slightly below normal, that's well below normal!

3. Average to above-average snowfall – Grade: C

Despite all that cold, we did not see above average snowfall. The city picked up 10.6" compared to 13.8" average, so 3.2" below normal. D.C. has had below normal snowfall in all but two winters (2024-25 & 2018-19) in the past decade.

4. Slightly above-average shot at a significant snow event (6-12" in one storm) – Grade: A+

Nailed it. On Jan. 25, 2026, the city picked up 6.9" of snow from a storm that would go down as one of the most impactful in recent history... though more so due to the heavy sleet that also fell, and then the extreme cold that came after the event that froze everything solid, like concrete. This gave the storm its popular name as the snowcrete storm.

Bold Prediction #1: Coldest Month Compared to Average: December – Grade: A+ 

December was indeed the coldest month relative to its average, coming in 4.4°F below normal. January was just behind though at 4.2°F below normal, and February 3.8°F below normal.

Bold Prediction #2: Snowiest Month: January – Grade: A

Probably the least bold of my "bold" predictions, as January is typically the snowiest month. But it was not even close. December finished with 1.5" of snow while February only added 1.1" to the total. January led the pack with 7.0" of snow.

Bold Prediction #3: First 1" of Snow Before Christmas – Grade: A+

Probably the gustiest call made, as D.C. had not seen an inch of snow before   Christmas since 2018! We picked up 1.1" of it on Dec. 5 for our very first snow of the season however!

Bold Prediction #4: Does D.C. Get a Blizzard Warning? No – Grade: A

Another not so bold prediction, though several outlets were talking about blizzard potential last winter. While several climate indicators suggested that blizzard risks were above normal, we felt they would not come together for a true D.C. blizzard event. That was indeed the case.

The Big Winter Player: Super El Niño

Let's start off with the feature that is easily going to have the largest impact on our weather pattern this winter season. You have likely heard of it by now, a super El Niño is well underway in the tropical Pacific Ocean. But what is a super El Niño? 

Simply put, a super El Niño is an especially strong version of El Niño, a natural climate pattern that occurs when water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean becomes much warmer than normal for an extended period of time, typically for the better part of a year, sometimes extending multiple years.

Think of the tropical Pacific Ocean as a giant heat source that can influence weather patterns around the world. When that water gets unusually warm, it changes where large areas of thunderstorms develop across the Pacific Ocean. This large area of rising air can influence how air circulates through the atmosphere. Those changes can influence the jet stream, storm tracks, and temperatures thousands of miles away, including in our part of the country. The effect is most notable in late fall and the winter months.

So how can this super El Niño influence our weather pattern here during the winter months?

One of the most important effects of El Niño is that it often strengthens the subtropical jet stream, a fast-moving river of air high in the atmosphere. This is different from the jet stream you often hear about, which is the polar jet steam, another belt of fast-moving air that helps bring cold air down from Canada. This one has more to do with moisture and storms.

A strong subtropical jet can encourage storms to develop or travel across the southern United States and then move toward the East Coast. Some of these storms can bring substantial moisture to our region in the Mid-Atlantic. This generally means...

1. More opportunities for coastal storms and periods of widespread precipitation.
2. An increased chance of nor'easters developing or intensifying along the East Coast.

However, there is an important caveat. More storms do not automatically mean more snow. The track of each storm and the temperature profile determine what falls.

Strong El Niño winters have historically tended to favor warmer-than-average winter temperatures in Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, according to historical data from the National Weather Service. 

That does not mean winter will be warm every day. Instead, the season could feature alternating periods of mild weather and brief, sometimes intense, shots of Arctic air. So whether or not we are talking about a lot of snow, or a lot of rain, it really will depend on the timing of the cold shots that we do get.

A good example is the most recent strong El Niño winter of 2015-2016. That winter was the 10th warmest in D.C. history, with an average temperature of 42°F. However, the winter is mostly remembered for a brief period of strong cold in the middle of January, which happened to come in a couple days ahead of a strong surge of moisture from the southern jet stream. This resulted in the Blizzard of 2016, where parts of the D.C. region picked up over three feet of snow.

Temperatures returned to the 50s just three days after the storm, however. Much of the snow melted away quickly. This is the potential strong El Niño winters can bring. Typically, there are fewer opportunities for snow with more limited cold air outbreaks, but if one is timed just right... there is bigger snow potential with them.

Past Very Strong El Niño Winters & Washington, D.C.

Since the NOAA and the National Weather Service started tracking data on El Niño accurately back in 1950, there have only been three El Niño years that have been classified as very strong: 1982-83, 1997-98, and most recently in 2015-16.

One thing they all have in common? Mild temperatures. Now winters in D.C. are rarely warm by, say, Florida or California standards, so note when we say that we are expecting a mild winter, we are saying that we expect above normal temperatures. The average temperature through winter here in Washington, D.C., is 39.3°F. Each of these El Niño cases were over 1°F above the seasonal normal, which may not seem extreme, but it takes a good amount of warmth through a three-month period to get a three-month average to be that far above the mean. Two of the three cases were top 10 warmest winters in D.C. history, with 2015-16 being the 10th warmest on record (42.0°F/+2.7°F) while 1982-83 was the 8th warmest (42.5°F/+3.2).

What is typically very skewed in these types of years is not so much afternoon high temperatures compared to seasonal normals (40s and 50s), but actually overnight low temperatures. These can be held up significantly, as a more active subtropical jet keeps more atmospheric moisture present, which keeps overnight lows from falling as dramatically as moist air retains more latent heat than dry air... meaning dry air cools more than moist air.

Speaking of moisture, there is a slight divide in that category. El Niño years do tend to be wetter than average, which honestly does not take much in the winter season, which is D.C.'s driest season on average. Compared to the nearly foot of rain (11.78") that D.C. averages in the summertime, winter averages about 3" less (8.89") during the winter. Two of the three cases feature rainfall on par with a summer season. 2015-16 is the 13th wettest winter on record (11.31") while 1997-98 is the 7th wettest on record (12.40"). Only 1982-83 came in with below normal precipitation (6.52").

But of course, what people around here remember is not rainfall, it's snowfall! So how did these years do in terms of snowfall?

This may surprise you, given that it was the driest of the three, but during the 1982–83 season, an extremely active and stormy pattern set up along the East Coast during the month of February. The proper alignment of moisture and cold air produced severe weather, including the major Blizzard of February 1983, which dumped nearly 17 inches of snow on Washington, D.C., bringing the season's total to 27.6 inches.

What stands out to me about this winter is that they got that 27.6" of snow, on only three measurable snowfall events. A 6" storm, a 4" storm, and a 17" storm. In an average winter, D.C. will typically see eight days of measurable snowfall.  This is a theme that we see a lot during these types of stronger El Niño years... fewer opportunities for snowfall, but if cold does align with moisture even briefly, the amount of snow that could fall with each event is higher.

By contrast, the 1997–98 super El Niño brought one of the wettest winters in D.C. history, but is also tied for the winter with the least snowfall, as only 0.1" fell through the entire season. 2015-16 was the perfect combination of the two... the warmth and moisture of 1997-98, with the right alignment of cold for a brief period of time like 1982-83. The result? The blizzard of January 2016, sometimes called "Snowzilla," which dropped 2-3 feet on parts of the D.C. region.

 Winter 2026-27: Temperature Outlook

As usual, our confidence is highest with respect to temperatures for the upcoming winter. We are expecting a very mild winter, though I want to stress that a "mild" winter does not mean no cold at all. Every winter has its cold air outbreak. So no, we are not telling you to leave the summer clothes out for the winter ahead. However, when all is said and done, a top 10 warmest winter on record would not shock me at all.

A few reasons we think this...

• Likely record-setting El Niño intensity. A powerful subtropical jet is likely to dominate the weather pattern for much of the winter, pumping up warm Gulf/Atlantic air and moisture.
• Using Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) data from NOAA, there have been a total of four cases of very strong El Niño on record. All of them have been above average for winter months.
• A feature known as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), which relates to high-altitude stratospheric winds, is in its westerly phase and is forecast to remain westerly through the upcoming winter. This is expected to favor a stronger, more stable stratospheric polar vortex, slightly reducing the odds of sudden stratospheric warming events and associated negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) phases that make cold air outbreaks more common and sustained.
• Through the fall so far, snow coverage expanse has been below-average across key parts of northern Asia and northern Canada, alongside considerable regional variability. Snow cover can influence surface heating, continental air-mass development, and downstream circulation. Aside from being a key source region for wintertime cold air masses, the rapid expanse of snowfall in these parts of the world during the fall season has been linked to increased Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events. These events can increase the likelihood of wintertime polar jet stream variability, which would increase the potential for more frequent cold air transport into the east. With this feature being weaker than normal this year, we believe these will be less frequent.
• In previous years, I have looked heavily into the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which is once again in its negative phase. However, with such a strong El Niño in place, this is likely going to significantly outweigh any potential impact here.
• The strong warmth of the Tropical Pacific with the El Niño and the cold of the polar north should power a very persistently strong Pacific Jet this winter season. With less frequent breakdowns, warmer Pacific air is likely to flood into the United States with only occasional breakdowns allowing for true Canadian polar air to be directed southward.

Winter 2026-27: Precipitation & Snowfall Outlook

Now to what everyone has been waiting for! Now I have divided this section into two parts, one of which I believe is easier to answer, and the other is more difficult.

Let's start with the more confident of the two predictions. We expect that this will be a wet winter. Like most other things this winter, it will be the historically strong El Niño that will be the primary driving factor. Back in late spring, we released an article talking about our early expectations for what the El Niño would bring us. One of our predictions was that the drought would continue, but that thanks to El Niño, we would transition to a wetter pattern during the late summer and early fall, and we expected the drought to be improved. Since the writing of that article, the region has improved drought stage two (severe) to drought stage zero (abnormally dry).

This prediction was not made on a whim. El Niño years in general tend to be wet ones for the East Coast. More than 50% of El Niño cases of any strength feature above normal precipitation, but when isolated to strong and very strong cases, that number jumps to more than 70%, averaging over 10" of rainfall over the course of the winter season.

The much tougher call comes with snowfall.

My most confident call is that I believe we will have less opportunity for snowfall compared to the average winter. What do I mean by this? Well, in any given winter, D.C. averages eight days of measurable snowfall. During very strong El Niño years, that average is cut in half to just four. This is because in strong El Niño winters, sustained cold is much harder to come by.

The classic name for these types of winters is boom or bust winters when it comes to snowfall. The opportunities for snowfall may be lower, but if we do manage to see a push of cold air timed well with an active southern storm track, then we could be talking about a blockbuster-level snow event here in the D.C. region. I could just as easily see us getting a January 2016 level blizzard as I could D.C.'s first ever snowless winter. To me, the factors break down like this...

• Against Big SnowLikely historically strong El NiñoStrong Subtropical jetWarmer temperatures favoredForecast westerly QBO through winterFavors fewer disruptions to the Polar VortexStrong Pacific jet forecast this winter
• Likely historically strong El NiñoStrong Subtropical jet
• Strong Subtropical jet
• Warmer temperatures favored
• Forecast westerly QBO through winterFavors fewer disruptions to the Polar Vortex
• Favors fewer disruptions to the Polar Vortex
• Strong Pacific jet forecast this winter
• For Big SnowWet winterFavorable storm trackModel outlookEuropean and American climate models favor colder risks in late winter, along with favorable storm tracks.Solar activityWe are at a similar spot in our solar cycle (cycle 25) as we were during the 2015-16 super El Niño during cycle 24, with declining solar activity.This impacts the amount of UV radiation impacting the stratosphere, which can influence the strength of the Polar Vortex.Negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (-PDO)May occasionally disrupt the Pacific Jet/El Niño pattern.Differs from 1997 and 2015 strong El Niño cases which were both +PDO cases.Not putting much weight on this, as past winters have shown PDO may be more an atmospheric response than influencing the atmosphere. But watching!
• Wet winterFavorable storm track
• Favorable storm track
• Model outlookEuropean and American climate models favor colder risks in late winter, along with favorable storm tracks.
• European and American climate models favor colder risks in late winter, along with favorable storm tracks.
• Solar activityWe are at a similar spot in our solar cycle (cycle 25) as we were during the 2015-16 super El Niño during cycle 24, with declining solar activity.This impacts the amount of UV radiation impacting the stratosphere, which can influence the strength of the Polar Vortex.
• We are at a similar spot in our solar cycle (cycle 25) as we were during the 2015-16 super El Niño during cycle 24, with declining solar activity.This impacts the amount of UV radiation impacting the stratosphere, which can influence the strength of the Polar Vortex.
• This impacts the amount of UV radiation impacting the stratosphere, which can influence the strength of the Polar Vortex.
• Negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (-PDO)May occasionally disrupt the Pacific Jet/El Niño pattern.Differs from 1997 and 2015 strong El Niño cases which were both +PDO cases.Not putting much weight on this, as past winters have shown PDO may be more an atmospheric response than influencing the atmosphere. But watching!
• May occasionally disrupt the Pacific Jet/El Niño pattern.
• Differs from 1997 and 2015 strong El Niño cases which were both +PDO cases.
• Not putting much weight on this, as past winters have shown PDO may be more an atmospheric response than influencing the atmosphere. But watching!

I think we are going to have a number of "close calls" this year. But I am not confident that we are going to get the timely push of cold air and blocking patterns for the big one here in D.C. this winter, even though I will admit that odds of a blizzard are likely at their highest levels since the last one back in January 2016.

The Final Call

So here is our official forecast for the upcoming winter of 2026-27:

• Well above normal winter temperaturesMuch warmer than last winter.Particularly elevated low temperatures overnight.Current Winter Average: 39.3°FForecast Projection: 41-43°F (+2-4°F above normal)
• Much warmer than last winter.
• Particularly elevated low temperatures overnight.
• Current Winter Average: 39.3°F
• Forecast Projection: 41-43°F (+2-4°F above normal)
• Above Average PrecipitationFrequent storms, especially during January and February.Current Winter Average: 8.88" liquid.Forecast Projection: 10-13" liquid.
• Frequent storms, especially during January and February.
• Current Winter Average: 8.88" liquid.
• Forecast Projection: 10-13" liquid.
• Below Normal SnowfallConcern over the likely record El Niño dominating the pattern.Too much mild, tropical air in the atmosphere.Stronger Polar Vortext, less frequent and less impactful Stratospheric Warming events compared to last winter.Less frequent, shorter lives, and cold air outbreaks.Current Winter Average: 13.8" snowfall.Forecast Projection: 6-12" snowfall.
• Concern over the likely record El Niño dominating the pattern.
• Too much mild, tropical air in the atmosphere.
• Stronger Polar Vortext, less frequent and less impactful Stratospheric Warming events compared to last winter.Less frequent, shorter lives, and cold air outbreaks.
• Less frequent, shorter lives, and cold air outbreaks.
• Current Winter Average: 13.8" snowfall.
• Forecast Projection: 6-12" snowfall.
• Bust Potential: Highest Blizzard Potential in Over a DecadeBoom-or-bust winterLess frequent snow events, few if any "small snows."Favorable pattern and storm track for multiple Nor’easters.Cold Air Supply is the big concern this winter.Storms will be moisture heavy this winter. We all need is well-timed cold air, and D.C. could see its first blizzard in over a decade.2015-16 is a good analog for the potential for more snowfall.It was the 10th warmest winter on record.Strongest El Niño on record (4th strongest by RONI ranking).Brief strong cold in January 2016, timed with strong moisture push from the south.
• Boom-or-bust winterLess frequent snow events, few if any "small snows."Favorable pattern and storm track for multiple Nor’easters.Cold Air Supply is the big concern this winter.Storms will be moisture heavy this winter. We all need is well-timed cold air, and D.C. could see its first blizzard in over a decade.
• Less frequent snow events, few if any "small snows."
• Favorable pattern and storm track for multiple Nor’easters.
• Cold Air Supply is the big concern this winter.Storms will be moisture heavy this winter. We all need is well-timed cold air, and D.C. could see its first blizzard in over a decade.
• Storms will be moisture heavy this winter. We all need is well-timed cold air, and D.C. could see its first blizzard in over a decade.
• 2015-16 is a good analog for the potential for more snowfall.It was the 10th warmest winter on record.Strongest El Niño on record (4th strongest by RONI ranking).Brief strong cold in January 2016, timed with strong moisture push from the south.
• It was the 10th warmest winter on record.
• Strongest El Niño on record (4th strongest by RONI ranking).
• Brief strong cold in January 2016, timed with strong moisture push from the south.

Mike's Own Bold Winter Predictions

So that's what I believe the science, the statistics, and the signals are pointing towards the winter ahead. But since they went so well last year, let's wrap this up with a little fun. What are some of my own... let's call them "gut feeling" thoughts for the winter ahead?

Bold Prediction #1: No measurable snowfall through the New Year (at DCA)

My reasoning:

• El Niño peaks in strength during early winter.
• El Niño lacks the El Niño Modoki flavor.Warmer waters closest to South America instead of the Central Tropical Pacific.Stronger Subtropical Jet promotes warmth and limits cold.
• Warmer waters closest to South America instead of the Central Tropical Pacific.
• Stronger Subtropical Jet promotes warmth and limits cold.
• The Snow Advance Index in Asia/Europe through fall has been poor this year, as has snow advance in Canada.Source regions for winter cold air masses warmer year-over-year.So occasional cold, but early winter is too warm for good snow.
• Source regions for winter cold air masses warmer year-over-year.
• So occasional cold, but early winter is too warm for good snow.

Bold Prediction #2: Top 10 warmest winter on record in D.C.

My reasoning:

• Similar to winters of 1997-98 and 2015-16Both were super El Niño years.Both were top 10 warmest winters on record.
• Both were super El Niño years.
• Both were top 10 warmest winters on record.
• Powerful subtropical jet and north Pacific jet powered by the El Niño flood the Lower 48 with mild and moist air.
• Polar Vortex disruptions were more "muted" this year due to the overwhelming El Niño impact.

Bold Prediction #3: December, January and February all above normal

My reasoning:

• It's the opposite of last year, when all three were below normal, and the coldest winter since 2002-03.
• El Niño again just dominating the pattern, limiting cold periods through the duration of winter.
• El Niño is much slower to weaken through winter than previous recent El Niño cases.

Bold Prediction #4: The streak ends! D.C. gets a blizzard!

• Likely a surprise call given #1 and #2, and our snowfall outlook.Call it a gut feeling. I do not think that we see much cold. But I think the pattern is active enough that it will only take one decent cold air outbreak to get a decent storm here in D.C.The strongest El Niño on record via the old Oceanic Niño Index (2015-16) and the strongest El Niño on record via the new Relative Oceanic Niño Index (1982-83) both produced a blizzard.2015-16 BlizzardJan. 22-23, 201617.8" at DCA1982-83 BlizzardFeb. 10-11, 198316.6" at DCAModels and climatology suggest late winter is the time to watch.I do believe D.C. snowfall will come from just 1–3 events total this year, so saying "it’s either a big one, or almost none" for snowfall.We’re due!No scientific reason here, just that, statistically, D.C. does see a blizzard-level storm every 7–10 years. Our last blizzard warning in D.C. was in 2016. So, while I believe the odds are overall against us weather wise, I am throwing my bet in for an upset!
• Call it a gut feeling. I do not think that we see much cold. But I think the pattern is active enough that it will only take one decent cold air outbreak to get a decent storm here in D.C.
• The strongest El Niño on record via the old Oceanic Niño Index (2015-16) and the strongest El Niño on record via the new Relative Oceanic Niño Index (1982-83) both produced a blizzard.2015-16 BlizzardJan. 22-23, 201617.8" at DCA1982-83 BlizzardFeb. 10-11, 198316.6" at DCA
• 2015-16 BlizzardJan. 22-23, 201617.8" at DCA
• Jan. 22-23, 201617.8" at DCA
• 17.8" at DCA
• 1982-83 BlizzardFeb. 10-11, 198316.6" at DCA
• Feb. 10-11, 198316.6" at DCA
• 16.6" at DCA
• Models and climatology suggest late winter is the time to watch.
• I do believe D.C. snowfall will come from just 1–3 events total this year, so saying "it’s either a big one, or almost none" for snowfall.
• We’re due!No scientific reason here, just that, statistically, D.C. does see a blizzard-level storm every 7–10 years. Our last blizzard warning in D.C. was in 2016. So, while I believe the odds are overall against us weather wise, I am throwing my bet in for an upset!
• No scientific reason here, just that, statistically, D.C. does see a blizzard-level storm every 7–10 years. Our last blizzard warning in D.C. was in 2016. So, while I believe the odds are overall against us weather wise, I am throwing my bet in for an upset!

So there you have it! Our winter outlook for the 2026-27 Winter Season! Remember, every winter is different. Since records began, D.C. has never had a snowless winter, even during its warmest cases! So, at some point, winter will likely throw us an unexpected curveball or two. Whether or not it's sun, snow, or even snowcrete, the Fox 5 Weather Team and Fox Local will be here to keep you ahead of anything the Super El Niño and the coming winter will throw at us!