Could Americans see an extra $1,000 on their tax returns in 2026?

WASHINGTON - During her Thursday briefing, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that Americans could see a huge bump in their tax returns come spring in what would be a "record-breaking" tax refund season.

But how much could taxpayers expect, and how likely is it to happen?

Here's what we know:

‘Record-breaking’ tax refund season?

By the numbers:

Leavitt cited new analysis from investment banking firm Piper Sandler, which predicts that Americans could expect an extra $1,000 in their tax refunds in 2026.

In total, Piper Sandler expects taxpayers could see an additional $91 billion in refunds for the 2026 tax filing season. 

The White House is crediting the Trump administration's One Big Beautiful Bill. 

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One Big Beautiful Bill tax cuts

The backstory:

President Donald Trump signed his "One Big Beautiful Bill" in July. The bill includes things like a larger standard deduction and tax breaks on tips and overtime, car loan interest and more.

But the key for the upcoming tax refund season is that many of the changes stipulated in the Big Beautiful Bill are retroactive to the beginning of 2025. 

Why you should care:

While taxpayers will owe less, the IRS in August announced that it won't be updating tax forms or tax withholding tables, which employers use to calculate how much tax to take out of an employee's paycheck. 

Piper Sandler economist Don Schneider spoke about the Big Beautiful Bill's impact on the tax return season on the Talking Taxes In a Truck Podcast. 

Schneider said that because most taxpayers won't be updating their tax documents to account for these retroactive changes, that, "In reality, when people go to file, I think they'll be surprised by really, really large refunds." 

Another analysis from J.P. Morgan found that "far too much money will have been withheld from taxpayers and refunds will surge in early 2026."

What we don't know:

Schneider says it's not a certainty that taxpayers will see all that money in their tax refunds come spring, however.

"It could be one of the largest refund seasons ever," he said. "But, of course there's a question: do you get these benefits in the form of a refund, or [do you get] just significantly reduced tax liability that was otherwise positive when you file your return?"