WASHINGTON, D.C. - With all 48 teams now set for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, early predictions are already shaping who could lift the trophy next summer.
What we know:
Prediction market data shows Spain as the early favorite to win the tournament, with roughly a 16% chance.
France and England follow closely behind, each just above 12%, while defending champion Argentina sits under 10%.
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Brazil and Portugal round out the top tier of contenders, both drawing strong early interest from bettors.
Germany, the Netherlands and Norway also appear among the next group of contenders, though with significantly lower odds.
Top 2026 FIFA World Cup favorites
- Spain — 16%
- France — 12–13%
- England — 12%
- Argentina — 9%
- Brazil — 8–9%
- Portugal — 6–7%
- Germany — 5–6%
- Netherlands — 3–4%
- Norway — ~3%
- Italy — ~2%
- Belgium — ~2%
- United States — ~1.6–1.7%
- Colombia — ~1.6–1.7%
- Japan — ~1.6%
- Morocco — ~1.5–1.6%
- Uruguay — ~1.3–1.4%
- Croatia — ~1.2%
- Mexico — ~1.1%
- Switzerland — ~1.2%
- Ecuador — ~0.8–0.9%
Big picture view:
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be the first to feature 48 teams, expanding the field and potentially opening the door for more surprise runs.
Still, early projections suggest traditional soccer powers remain the most likely champions.
Current FIFA World Rankings
The latest FIFA/Coca-Cola Men’s World Rankings show a tight race at the top heading into the 2026 World Cup.
France has moved into the No. 1 spot, followed closely by Spain and defending champion Argentina. The top teams remain tightly grouped, with several traditional powers and emerging contenders rounding out the top 10.
Top 10 FIFA men’s world rankings (April 2026):
- France
- Spain
- Argentina
- England
- Portugal
- Brazil
- Netherlands
- Morocco
- Belgium
- Germany
Big picture view:
The rankings highlight how dominant traditional soccer powers remain heading into the expanded 48-team World Cup.
FIFA notes that 37 of the 48 qualified teams are ranked inside the top 50, underscoring the overall strength of the field. Only a few highly ranked teams — including Italy — failed to qualify for the tournament.
At the same time, several countries have surged up the rankings during qualifying, including Türkiye, Sweden and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
What's next:
The tournament kicks off June 11 across the United States, Canada and Mexico, with 104 matches scheduled through July 19.
As teams finalize rosters and prepare for the tournament, odds and predictions are expected to shift.
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The Source: This article was written using information from Polymarket data and FIFA.