53% of likely Maryland voters oppose congressional redistricting amendment

ANNAPOLIS, MD. - A new poll released on Wednesday, Oct. 7 shows that 53% of likely Maryland voters plan to vote "no" on Question 3 in the upcoming general election.

On the contrary, 25% of likely voters said they would vote for the amendment, and 19% said they were undecided. 

What we know:

The proposed constitutional amendment would remove Maryland Constitution requirements governing the boundaries of congressional districts, including requirements related to compactness and contiguity, while retaining those requirements for state legislative districts.

The poll, which was conducted by the UMBC Institute of Politics, surveyed 776 Marylanders from September 22 to 27, with a margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points.

Likely voters also split by party affiliation in the poll—42% of Democrats, 74% of Republicans and 59% of unaffiliated voters said they plan to vote "no."

Mid-decade redistricting battle

Dig deeper:

Maryland Gov. Wes Moore has been a vocal proponent of the amendment, which would give state lawmakers greater flexibility to redraw congressional districts, potentially making it easier for the Democratic-controlled legislature to pursue a map favorable to Democrats.

"This affirms what I have said from the very beginning: the final decision on how we draw our maps belongs in the hands of Marylanders, not politicians," Moore said following the Maryland Supreme Court ruling that allowed the constitutional amendment to appear on the state's general election ballot.

"For over a year, I have warned that Donald Trump and Republicans across the country are working to rig the system, weaken voting rights and make this pain permanent through aggressive mid-decade redistricting," he added, speaking to the broader congressional redistricting battle involving the president. 

Fight for control of the US House

This national mid-decade redistricting push represents an unprecedented struggle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

While states historically redraw congressional maps once a decade following the census, Texas—at the urging of President Donald Trump—enacted a new mid-decade map aimed at expanding the Republican House majority, and the U.S. Supreme Court ultimately allowed the map to remain in effect for the 2026 elections.

Texas isn't the only state involved, however. Similar map redraws and legal adjustments have been carried out in states including North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Tennessee, Utah, Alabama and Louisiana over the last year or so, which has in turn created a broader national shift in congressional boundaries.

In response to these Republican efforts, Democrats mounted aggressive countermeasures to offset conservative map changes. In California, voters passed Proposition 50 in a special election last year, approving a measure backed by Gov. Gavin Newsom that temporarily bypasses the state's independent commission to allow state lawmakers to enact a revised congressional map designed to yield several new Democratic seats in the House.

Voter hesitation and remaining legislative steps

What's next:

Similar efforts or proposals were pursued or debated in states like Missouri and Virginia, but the UMBC poll suggests Maryland voters are skeptical of giving lawmakers greater latitude to alter congressional boundaries.

Still, even if the measure passes, it would not automatically draw a new congressional map, as lawmakers would still have to come back and approve one.