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NOAA releases 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast
NOAA released its official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast Thursday, predicting a below-average season with 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, which include 1 to 3 major (Category 3+) storms this year. LiveNOW's Anna Marsick brings NOAA Lead Seasonal Hurricane Forecaster Matthew Rosencrans into the conversation to discuss.
WASHINGTON - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a winter shaped by a very strong El Niño, with warmer-than-average temperatures favored across much of the northern United States and wetter-than-average conditions expected across the southern tier and along the East Coast.
NOAA releases US Winter Outlook
Big picture view:
NOAA’s 2026-2027 U.S. Winter Outlook, released Friday, Oct. 16, examined expected temperature, precipitation and drought trends for the months of December through February, which is considered meteorological winter.
The seasonal forecast suggested that parts of the Southwest, Southern Great Plains, Southeast and East Coast could see drought conditions improve or end, while some areas of the northern Rockies may experience worsening drought.
The 2026-2027 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are most likely across the Southwest, South and East Coast. Drier-than-average conditions are forecast for parts of the northern Rockies and Great Lakes, and
The outlook also warned that increased precipitation could bring hazards of its own, particularly in drought-stricken areas where heavy rainfall can trigger flash flooding and mudslides.
What they're saying:
"As we know from decades of observations, a very strong El Nino will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South," Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, said in a statement. "While higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides. Now is the time for communities and individuals to plan ahead for the upcoming winter."
NOAA forecasts wetter-than-average conditions across the South and East Coast from December through February. (Credit: Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
The outlook also identifies higher chances of drier-than-average conditions in Hawaii, much of Alaska, the northern Mountain West, parts of the Great Lakes region and the western Pacific Islands.
Areas of the Intermountain West, northern Plains, Ohio Valley, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands have equal chances of receiving below-average, near-average or above-average seasonal precipitation.
NOAA favors above-average temperatures across much of US
Dig deeper:
NOAA’s temperature outlook also favored above-average seasonal temperatures across northern California, the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley and much of the eastern United States. Alaska and Puerto Rico, along with the U.S. Virgin Islands, are also expected to have increased chances of warmer-than-average conditions.
The 2026-2027 U.S. Winter Outlook map for temperature shows the greatest chances for warmer-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Midwest, Mississippi Valley, much of the East and Alaska. (Credit: NOAA)
The strongest odds for above-average temperatures extend across the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Midwest, Mississippi Valley, much of the East and Alaska.
RELATED: Here’s where tornado activity is shifting across the U.S.
Parts of the Southeast, including Florida, are more likely to experience near-normal seasonal temperatures. Hawaii and much of the Southwest have equal chances of below-average, near-average or above-average temperatures, meaning NOAA does not favor one category over the others.
The Source: The information for this story was provided by NOAA. This story was reported from Los Angeles.