Presidential predictor Allan Lichtman uses 13 ‘Keys to the White House’ tracker on 2024 election
Presidential predictor Allan Lichtman uses 13 ‘Keys to the White House’ tracker on 2024 election
Presidential election predictor Allan Lichtman, who has predicted the winner of nearly every U.S. presidential race since 1984 using his 13 ‘Keys to the White House’ method, says the 2024 race is too early to call, but that a lot would have to go wrong for one candidate to lose.
WASHINGTON - Presidential election predictor Allan Lichtman, who has predicted the winner of nearly every U.S. presidential race since 1984 using his 13 "Keys to the White House" method, says it's too early to call the 2024 race likely between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump. But he adds a lot would have to go wrong for one candidate to lose.
Lichtman uses the prediction system he developed called "The Keys to the White House" to determine the outcome of the elections. He describes the "Keys’" as a "vote up or down on the strength and performance of the White House party." If the candidate loses six of the "Keys," they are out, he says.
"I haven't made a final prediction yet because things are still very fluid on my 13 "Keys To The White House," he told FOX 5 Tuesday. But he did tackle some of the predictors that have recently become clear.
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ALLAN LICHTMAN'S 13 THE KEYS TO THE WHITE HOUSE
KEY 1 (Party Mandate)
KEY 2 (Contest)
KEY 3 (Incumbency)
KEY 4 (Third Party)
KEY 5 (Short-Term Economy)
KEY 6 (Long-Term Economy)
KEY 7 (Policy Change)
KEY 8 (Social Unrest)
KEY 9 (Scandal)
KEY 10 (Foreign/Military Failure)
KEY 11 (Foreign/Military Success)
KEY 12 (Incumbent Charisma)
KEY 13 (Challenger Charisma)
KEYS SECURED BY BIDEN SO FAR
"Forget all the pundits who say Biden should step aside for a younger candidate. The Democrats’ only chance to win is with Biden running," he said, adding that so far Biden has control of Contest and Incumbency Keys.
KEYS BIDEN HAS DEFINITELY LOST
"He has definitively lost two keys. My first key, the Mandate Key, because they lost U.S. House seats in 2022. And Key 12, Incumbent Charisma, he's no John F. Kennedy or Franklin Roosevelt."
"There are also four shaky Keys, all of which would have to fall to predict Biden’s defeat," he said. The shaky Keys are:
Third Party (Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his role as the election nears.)
Social Unrest (Protests on college campuses over the Israel-Hamas war.)
Military Failure & Military Success Foreign Policy (Wars in the Middle East and in the Ukraine.)
"A lot would have to go wrong on all of these Keys for Biden to lose. But that's still possible," he said.
Lichtman’s final prediction will be made in August.