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Election forecaster: Spanberger "as certain as the sun" to win Va. Gov. race
Election forecaster Chaz Nuttycombe, executive director of State Navigate, told The Final 5 that his projections suggest Democrat Abigail Spanberger is a near lock to win Virginia’s governor’s race, with a 98% chance of victory, while Ghazala Hashmi is heavily favored for lieutenant governor and the attorney general race remains tight between Jay Jones and Jason Miyares. Nuttycombe projects Democrats will expand their slim House of Delegates majority by several seats and expects early voting to make up more than 40% of the total electorate. Known for his precise state-level forecasts, Nuttycombe says his live election-night model, NavCast, will give Virginians real-time insight into where the votes are coming from as results roll in.
RICHMOND, Va. - All eyes are on Virginia ahead of Election Day — and one of the country’s most accurate political forecasters says the Commonwealth’s top race may already be all but decided.
What we know:
Chaz Nuttycombe, the 25-year-old executive director and founder of the nonpartisan nonprofit State Navigate, joined The Final 5 to break down his latest projections.
A Virginia native and rising star in election analysis, Nuttycombe has earned national attention for his near-perfect track record forecasting state legislative races — including a 100% accuracy rate in Virginia’s 2023 elections.
"Abigail Spanberger becoming governor of Virginia is as certain as the sun rising tomorrow," Nuttycombe told The Final 5. "She has a 98% chance of winning in our forecast."
Virginia Governor’s Race Prediction: Spanberger Strongly Favored
By the numbers:
Nuttycombe’s latest model shows Democrat Abigail Spanberger leading the gubernatorial race by roughly 10 points, with 98% odds of victory. He compared her dominance to Bob McDonnell’s 2009 landslide, calling this the "least competitive governor’s race" Virginia has seen in more than a decade.
Prediction for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General Races
Nuttycombe’s forecast also gives Democrat Ghazala Hashmi a heavy edge in the lieutenant governor’s race — "about as likely as rain in Seattle," he quipped — but he says the attorney general race remains far more competitive.
"Jason Miyares has picked up ground among Democrats," he said. "Right now, Jay Jones is a slight favorite — about a 72% chance to win — but that margin has narrowed to just under three points."
House of Delegates Prediction: Democrats Likely to Expand Majority
In the fight for control of the Virginia House of Delegates, Nuttycombe projects Democrats have more than a 90% chance of keeping and expanding their majority. His team’s model currently shows Democrats gaining 8 seats, with a potential swing of 5 to 12 seats depending on Election Day turnout.
"Republicans are being heavily outspent this cycle," he noted. "Even on a good night for them, they’ll probably still lose ground."
Early Voting Trends and Election Modeling
Nuttycombe says early voting could make up over 40% of total ballots — higher than in 2021 — and that early votes are breaking D+19 to D+20 statewide. He also noted that some Northern Virginia localities, including Fairfax and Prince William, have reduced early-voting satellite locations, which could push more Democratic-leaning voters to cast ballots on Election Day.
To track the results, State Navigate has developed a real-time election night tool called NavCast, which will model vote margins and turnout by precinct, mail-in, and early-vote type across Virginia’s statewide and legislative races.
"You’ll be able to see not just who’s leading, but where the votes are coming from and what’s still out there," Nuttycombe explained.
Dig deeper:
A Virginia Tech graduate, Nuttycombe has quickly built a reputation for his precision in state-level forecasting. He began predicting elections as a high school senior in 2017, launching Cnalysis.com in 2019 and later founding State Navigate, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit that analyzes and visualizes data on state governments.
Profiled by The Guardian in 2023, Nuttycombe was praised by the Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman as a "rising star" who "has his finger on the pulse of every race in Virginia." His work, often conducted with a small virtual team, uses detailed precinct data, campaign finance reports, and statistical simulations to forecast thousands of legislative contests across multiple states.
"Your state legislature affects your day-to-day life more than Congress," Nuttycombe said in that interview. "State legislative elections are a million times more important — but I’m obviously biased on that front."
When does Early Voting end in Virginia?
What's next:
- Last day of early voting: Saturday, November 1
- Election Day: Tuesday, November 4
- State Navigate forecast updates: statenavigate.org
As Election Day nears, Nuttycombe says his focus will remain on the numbers, not the noise.
"Polls aren’t guesses," he said. "They’re data — and the data is telling a clear story in Virginia."
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