March's lion" roar heads into mid-month with snow potential

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The National Weather Service has issued a WINTER STORM WATCH that will be in effect Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon.
 
There is the potential for 5 or more inches of snow within 12 hours. Some locations may see significantly higher accumulation. Snow will overspread the area Monday evening and persist into Tuesday.
 The heavy snow may make many roads impassable and may produce power outages due to the weight of the snow on tree limbs and power lines. Winds will beNortheast 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
 
A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel.  
It’s not the first time we’ve had to deal with snow chances in March. In March of 1993, 1999, 2014 and 2015 we were digging out just before the official start of Spring, and it looks like history will repeat itself this coming week. 
 
As we continue to monitor the models and data, we are still left with many uncertainties but confidence continues to grow in that we will see some accumulation.  So the “unknowns” have us holding off being able to give a snow total forecast at this time.
 
The location and track of the Low can have a huge impact on the snow totals. If the storm tracks more to the West than we will see more rain/mix near the I-95 and higher snow totals West.  If more to the East than the opposite. The rain/snow line:   If it transitions along or just East of I-95,  there will be lower totals East of I-95.   Just a slight change in the storm’s track can make a huge difference in who gets what.
 
Here is what we do know:
 
The National Weather Service has issued their forecast which continues to be updated. Here’s a look at some of their total possibilities. This goes in sync with the American and European models in that, the highest totals are expected to be North and Northwest of DC and the least to the South and Southeast.
 
We rely on our computer models and data from the National Weather Service, and right now the models are not quite in agreement when it comes to the actual numbers and the strength of the storm.  The American model (GFS) wants to bring in much higher totals than the European Model.  These models continue to update and we continue to compare and study them to determine what exactly the set-up eventually will be.
 
Regardless the heaviest snow will fall in the overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday.  Temps will be cold enough for the snow to stick. This also means it increases our chance of accumulations and higher snow totals.  Bottom line is the track of the Low will be the determining factor for any impact we get.
 
By Tuesday afternoon the snow will taper off and cold air will move in from aloft as the Low moves off to the Northeast. 
 
We will keep you posted as more updates come in.

 

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